Independent research on Canadian mid-cap industrials.

Buy-side style research on TSX companies below the S&P/TSX 60, where analyst coverage is thinner. Every memo starts from the annual report and its notes, builds a three-statement model, and ends with a rating, a 12-month target and the facts that would prove it wrong.

01Desk

The desk at a glance

02Calendar

What's next

01Coverage

Coverage list

Five TSX-listed industrials with clear revenue drivers and enough disclosure to model. A name joins the list when its initiation memo is published.

#	Company	Ticker	Sub-industry	Rating	Price	Target	Upside	Status

01Research

Memos and earnings notes

Initiations run 5 to 10 pages with a linked model. An earnings note follows each quarterly report and call, and says whether the thesis still holds.

Date	Title	Type	Rating	Target

01Performance

Paper portfolio vs benchmark

Every Buy rating enters a hypothetical portfolio at the closing price on the publication date. No real money is invested. Returns include dividends and are compared with the S&P/TSX Completion Index.

02Positions

Positions

Ticker	Entry date	Entry	Last	Weight	Total return	vs index

03Rules

Portfolio rules

Draft. Final rules are set in the desk's investment policy.

Entry

Buy-rated names only, at the close on the publication date

Sizing

Equal weight at entry, 5 positions at most

Exit

Downgrade to Hold or Sell, target reached, or a kill criterion is hit

Record

Every entry and exit is logged with its date and price. Nothing is deleted.

01Method

How each company is researched

Screen. TSX industrials outside the S&P/TSX 60, liquid enough to trade, with at least five years of filings.Output: a ranked shortlist
Read the filings. Annual report, MD&A, notes to the financial statements, Annual Information Form and management proxy circular, from SEDAR+.Output: reading notes and red-flag list
Understand the industry. Customers, competitors, demand drivers and where the company has pricing power.Output: one-page industry brief
Model. Three statements built from the company's own drivers: five years of history, three years of forecasts.Output: Google Sheets model
Value. DCF and trading comparables, cross-checked with precedent transactions, under bull, base and bear cases.Output: valuation range and probability-weighted target
Decide. Thesis, catalysts, risks, rating and 12-month target, plus the facts that would make the thesis wrong.Output: the memo and a 2-minute pitch
Monitor. Earnings calls and quarterly results update the model, the rating and the paper portfolio.Output: earnings notes

02Ratings

Rating scale

Ratings are set by expected 12-month total return, price change plus dividends.

01Template

What every memo looks like

The standard layout for an initiation. Bracketed fields are filled for each company.

[Company name]

TSX: [TICKER] · [Sub-industry] · Initiation · [date]

[Buy / Hold / Sell]

C$[target]

12-month target

Price

C$[ ]

Upside

[ ]%

Market cap

C$[ ]bn

EV / EBITDA (NTM)

[ ]x

Net debt / EBITDA

[ ]x

1

Recommendation

One paragraph: the rating, the target and the single biggest reason.

2

The business

What it sells, to whom, and how it makes money, in five lines.

3

Thesis

Three points the market is missing, each backed by evidence from the filings.

4

Industry and position

Demand drivers, competitors, pricing power. Short.

5

Forecast

The three to five drivers that move earnings, with my numbers against consensus.

6

Valuation

DCF and comparables, cross-checked with precedents, shown as a valuation range.

7

Bull, base and bear

Value in each case, with probabilities, giving the probability-weighted target.

8

Catalysts

Dated events that could move the stock within 12 months.

9

Risks

What could go wrong, ranked by likelihood and impact.

10

What would make me wrong

Specific, measurable facts that would end the thesis, written before the stock moves.

11

ESG

Only the issues that could affect value. Brief.

12

Sources and model

Filings used, model link, and any position held by the author.

01About

About the analyst

Ali Maftoumi is a finance professional based in Montreal with a background in fund operations, financial analysis and data automation. He holds a Master's in Finance and has passed Level I of the CFA Program. MAFTOUMI Research is his independent record of how he analyzes companies and what he concludes, published so the process can be checked.

Based in: Montreal, Quebec
Focus: Canadian mid-cap industrials
Languages: English, French, Arabic
Contact: LinkedIn